On-chain data this week reveals that the Bitcoin market stands at a critical juncture. Although the short-term panic selling pressure has eased, accelerated profit-taking by Long-Term Holders (LTHs), coupled with cautious bottom-fishing capital, renders the overall market structure vulnerable.
For investors who primarily focus on short-term price movements, it is crucial to pay close attention to the following key trends and price support levels.
Accelerated Distribution by Long-Term Profit Holders: Selling Pressure Lingers
On-chain metrics show a clear transfer of supply occurring in the market:
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Long-Term Profit Holders Accelerate Selling: This week, long-term profit holders whose cost basis is below $100K reduced their holdings by 171,000 BTC, an increase of approximately 50,000 BTC compared to last week. This clearly indicates that LTHs are utilizing recent bounce windows to accelerate profit realization, creating sustained selling pressure on the price.
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Short-Term Panic Selling Slows: The cohort with a cost basis in the $100K–$124K range reduced their holdings by approximately 141,000 BTC, a reduction of 120,000 BTC compared to the previous week for Short-Term Holders (STHs). This suggests that the panic selling rate by STHs has slowed down following the recent correction.
Conclusion: While the reduction in short-term selling pressure is a positive signal, the accelerated distribution by long-term profit holders implies that overhead supply pressure remains significant, and any price rally is likely to face renewed selling impact.
Bottom-Fishing Capital Remains Cautious: Lack of Support at Market Bottoms
Analyzing the accumulation ranges this week reveals extreme prudence among bottom-fishing capital:
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Accumulation Concentration: Accumulation was mainly concentrated in the $108k–$110k and $113k–$116k ranges.
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Lack of Support at Lows: There was no notable increase in accumulation at the actual price lows in the $106k–$108k range.
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Lack of Confidence: This phenomenon suggests that bottom-fishing capital is either cautious about the current price or lacks conviction after buying the lows, choosing to sell during minor bounces rather than chasing upside momentum.
Impact on Short-Term Holders: The caution from bottom-fishing capital means the market lacks a strong influx of funds to quickly absorb the selling pressure from LTHs. This increases the risk of Bitcoin entering a consolidation or potential downward break near key support levels.
Key Price Stages for Short-Term Holders to Monitor
Based on historical on-chain data models, the relationship between the Bitcoin price and the STH average cost bands is crucial for determining the market phase:
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| Price Position | Market Phase Assessment | Risk/Opportunity Alert |
| Above 85% STH Avg. Cost | Cyclical Correction (Short-Term Bottom) | Correction expected to end, transitioning to an uptrend. |
| Between 75%–85% | Sustained Consolidation Period | Lack of market momentum, heightened short-term volatility, difficult trading. |
| Below 75% STH Avg. Cost | Cyclical Bear Market | Triggers a deeper correction; strict risk control is required. |
Currently, after the "1011" extreme event, the BTC price briefly fell below the 95% STH Average Cost and is now trending near the 85% STH Average Cost boundary.
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Key Support 1: 85% STH Average Cost (approx. $109,400). If the price fails to establish and maintain a position above this point, the market is likely to enter a consolidation period.
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Key Support 2: 75% STH Average Cost (approx. $98,700). Should the price fail to hold this support level, it could trigger a deeper correction. Short-Term Holders must treat this point as a critical stop-loss reference.
Summary of Market Sentiment and Structure
This week, the total crypto market capitalization and total trading volume both saw a slight decrease, indicating that market activity remains mostly steady, but trading sentiment is becoming cautious.
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Volume Structure: Although Bitcoin's trading volume dropped by 6.96% week-over-week, Altcoin volume only saw a minor decline of 0.23%, showing a slight sign of fund rotation.
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Overall Momentum: BTC's share of total trading volume slightly retreated, and altcoin activity showed a marginal pickup, but the overall upward momentum remains insufficient.
Advice for Short-Term Holders:
Given the backdrop of accelerated LTH distribution, cautious bottom-fishing, and the testing of key support levels, Short-Term Holders should maintain a high level of vigilance. Chasing rallies is risky until the BTC price clearly stabilizes above $109,400. A sell-high, buy-low consolidation strategy is recommended, with strict adherence to the $98,700 critical stop-loss defense.
