Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Faces Structural Shift Amid ETF Growth and Institutional Adoption

Derived from Jinse, the cryptocurrency industry is undergoing a transformation that challenges the traditional four-year cycle model. Institutional adoption of ETFs, tokenization of real-world assets, and the evolution of stablecoin infrastructure are reshaping market dynamics. Analyst Ignas noted that the 2024 launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs marked a turning point, with $34 billion in net inflows since April. These products have attracted pension funds, advisory firms, and commercial banks, shifting crypto from a retail speculative asset to an institutional allocation alongside gold and the Nasdaq. Bitcoin ETFs now manage over $150 billion, representing 6% of BTC supply, while Ethereum ETFs control 5.6% of ETH circulation. The SEC’s September approval of a universal ETP listing standard has accelerated this trend, paving the way for Solana and XRP. The report terms this shift as the 'crypto asset rotation,' where institutional buying is pushing cost bases higher and forming new price floors. ETFs have become the primary purchase channel for BTC and ETH, fundamentally altering the supply conditions that historically drove cycles. Stablecoins are expanding beyond transactional tools into payments, lending, and fiscal management, with a $30 billion real-world asset (RWA) market emerging. The CFTC’s recent approval of stablecoins as derivatives collateral has opened new institutional use cases. Blockchain projects like Stripe’s Tempo and Tether’s Plasma are integrating stablecoins into the real economy, while DAT companies offer equity market access for tokens not yet approved for ETFs. RWA tokenization is building real capital markets on-chain, with products like BlackRock’s BUIDL and Franklin Templeton’s BENJI bridging trillions of traditional capital into crypto. This structural shift suggests crypto is evolving from a cyclical speculative asset to a permanent financial infrastructure. However, as institutional capital favors sustainable business models over pure narratives, individual performance differentiation may replace broad market rallies.