Period: October 20–26, 2025
I. Macro Overview: Rate-Cut and End-of-QT Expectations Drive Risk Asset Recovery
Global risk assets rallied this week, buoyed by optimism over rate cuts, expectations that quantitative tightening (QT) will end soon, easing trade tensions, and strong U.S. corporate earnings.
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Stronger rate-cut expectations: The U.S. September CPI came in at 3%, below the market forecast of 3.1%. Markets have largely priced in a 25 bps rate cut at the end of October, with two more cuts likely by year-end.
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QT may end in Q4: Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that the balance sheet reduction could conclude within months. A formal announcement in Q4 would significantly improve liquidity conditions.
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Solid U.S. earnings: As of last Friday, 29% of S&P 500 companies had reported Q3 results, with 87% beating earnings expectations. The SPX is on track for its ninth consecutive quarter of year-over-year profit growth, averaging +8.5%.
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Trade relations easing: Trump denied maintaining high tariffs on China, while multiple U.S. officials sent positive signals, improving overall risk sentiment.
II. U.S. Equity Markets: Broad-Based Strength as VIX Hits Yearly Lows
U.S. equities extended gains on supportive macro conditions and robust earnings.
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S&P 500 ↑1.92%, Nasdaq ↑2.31% — both hitting new highs;
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Russell 2000 ↑2.50%, outperforming with strong small-cap gains;
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VIX Index fell to 16, reflecting a notable improvement in risk appetite.
Bitcoin followed global risk sentiment higher, oscillating between 106.6k–114.5k and posting a weekly gain of 5.43%. While U.S. equities have fully recovered from earlier losses, Bitcoin’s pace remains subdued:
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U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of $446 million, reversing two weeks of heavy outflows, though still modest in scale;
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Investor sentiment remains cautiously neutral, with capital rotation lagging equities.
IV. On-Chain Data: Strong Bids at 108k and 110k Strengthen Key Support Levels
On-chain data shows strengthening accumulation zones:
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Heavy buying observed in the 107.3–108.5k and 109.8–111.1k ranges, forming two strong support bands;
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91% of circulating BTC is now in profit, up from 85% last week — easing short-term sell pressure;
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Selling from long-term holders below 100k has narrowed, signaling reduced low-end supply pressure.
V. Derivatives Market: Option Activity Surges While Futures Leverage Plunges
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Options: Bitcoin open interest (OI) hit a record 571.4k contracts, highlighting investors’ aggressive positioning for volatility.
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Futures: Since the large liquidation on Oct 11, open interest and leverage ratios have both dropped to YTD lows, showing risk appetite remains subdued.
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Overall tone: Investors favor defensive setups ahead of key macro events; volatility expectations remain elevated.
VI. Market Structure: Price Up, Volume Down
The crypto market entered a “rising price, falling volume” phase:
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Total crypto market cap reached $3.84 trillion, up +4.37% WoW;
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Trading volume fell 25.3% WoW to $1.09 trillion;
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Bitcoin’s dominance edged up to 36.4%, slightly strengthening its lead;
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Altcoin volume dropped 26.86%, indicating a rotation back to blue-chip assets.
VII. Market Summary
Supported by dovish macro expectations, trade optimism, and solid earnings, Bitcoin rebounded 5.43% for the week. On-chain structure improved and options activity surged, reflecting heightened volatility expectations. However, capital inflows and leverage data suggest risk appetite remains muted. Short-term direction will depend on:
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The FOMC rate decision and Powell’s remarks;
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Tech giants’ Q3 earnings;
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U.S.-China trade negotiations.
VIII. Outlook｜Crypto Calendar (Oct 27–Nov 2, 2025)
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| Date | Event | Impact Type |
| Oct 27 | ChinaAMC Solana ETF debuts on HKEX; MegaETH token sale on Sonar | Market expansion / new projects |
| Oct 28 | Grass unlocks 181M tokens (≈$79.3M) | Potential sell pressure |
| Oct 29 | Trump visits South Korea | Geopolitical |
| Oct 30 | Fed rate decision & Powell press conference; SEC review of ETH staking trust proposal; Microsoft, Google, Meta Q3 earnings | High-volatility catalyst |
| Oct 31 | Mt. Gox repayment deadline (≈34,689 BTC); Amazon, Apple, Coinbase earnings | Potential supply impact |
| Nov 1 | SUI, YGG, and EigenCloud token unlocks | Secondary market watchpoints |
Conclusion: While optimism over rate cuts and QT easing continues to support a mild recovery, declining volumes and leverage suggest cautious sentiment still dominates. Next week’s FOMC decision, tech earnings, and Mt. Gox repayment developments will serve as critical catalysts determining whether Bitcoin can break above the 114k resistance range.
