Executive Summary
The cryptocurrency market this week was dominated by macroeconomic fears driven by the US government shutdown and subsequent liquidity crunch. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dipped below the critical $100,000 mark mid-week. Although sentiment repaired over the weekend due to positive news regarding the shutdown's likely end, BTC still closed the week down 5.26%.
From an on-chain perspective, chip distribution has become balanced in the $100k–$112k range, with a formidable concentration of over 600,000 BTC gathering at $112k, forming a strong short-term resistance. Price action is expected to remain range-bound here in the near term. The medium-to-long-term trajectory hinges on the amount of liquidity released from the Treasury General Account (TGA) following the government's resumption of operations. Altcoin market capitalization remained stable, suggesting that the risk appetite is neutral, with the mid-week recovery being primarily a technical rebound after the sharp drop.
Macroeconomic Outlook: Post-Shutdown Tailwinds (Focus: Sentiment, Rate Cuts, Liquidity)
The US government is tentatively scheduled to officially reopen on November 12th, a development expected to generate three positive effects for the market:
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Sentiment Alleviation
The recent market panic was largely triggered by the uncertainty surrounding the shutdown. Its conclusion is expected to alleviate widespread fear, immediately boosting investor confidence and setting the stage for a short-term sentiment repair phase in the crypto market.
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Increased December Rate Cut Probability
With the government reopening, the Federal Reserve will gain access to previously delayed key economic reports (September employment, retail, and inflation reports; October core PCE; November non-farm payrolls) ahead of the December 10th FOMC meeting. The availability of this comprehensive data is expected to effectively increase the likelihood of a December interest rate cut.
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Market Liquidity Restoration (TGA Release)
Since the government closure, the US Treasury has continued to collect funds via taxation and bond issuance. However, without Congressional budget approval, government departments could not spend as planned, causing the TGA to operate as "inflow only". The end of the shutdown is poised to restore liquidity, potentially releasing over $140 billion into the financial system, which is a significant tailwind for liquidity-sensitive assets like cryptocurrencies.
Market Dynamics: Short-Term Repair and Restructuring
The crypto market's movement this week was largely driven by macro sentiment, with Bitcoin tracking closely with US equities. After dropping from a high of $110.5k to a low of $98.9k (a volatility of 10.68%), the market experienced a period of extreme fear.
Crucially, the Bitcoin price did not fall below the Short-Term Holder (STH) Average Cost ($98,700), preventing a cascading panic sell-off. With the end of the shutdown, market confidence is expected to rise, increasing rate cut expectations, and easing liquidity pressure. The crypto market is anticipated to enter a 1-2 week sentiment repair period, though the initial bounce may be largely emotional, given the high level of previous panic and the staggered nature of liquidity recovery.
Bitcoin On-Chain Restructuring: $100k–$112k Consolidation
Following the recent correction, Bitcoin's on-chain structure shows clear signs of restructuring:
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Consolidated Range: The $100k–$112k price range now features a relatively balanced chip distribution, indicating substantial turnover.
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Key Resistance: Over 600,000 BTC are heavily concentrated near $112k, establishing this level as the dominant short-term resistance.
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Price Prediction: Historical data suggests that when BTC price trades in the 75%–85% range of the STH Cost Basis, it tends to enter a phased consolidation. The latest on-chain data confirms this trend.
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Outlook: Bitcoin is expected to maintain a volatile, range-bound movement within the $100k–$112k bracket over the next one to two weeks. The key resistance levels to watch are the 85% STH Cost at $108.5k and the heavy chip cluster at $112k.
Altcoin Risk Appetite Remains Neutral
Altcoin market cap share remained broadly stable this week, signaling no significant shift in overall market risk appetite. Although altcoin dominance saw a slight rebound post-Tuesday, historical analysis suggests such rallies are typically technical repairs following sharp drops, rather than evidence of a broader risk appetite diffusion. Investors are generally maintaining a neutral stance toward higher-risk assets.
Trading Structure: Dip-Buying and Flight to Quality
As of November 9th, the total crypto market capitalization stood at $3.4933 trillion, a weekly decrease of 5.3%. However, total market trading volume surged by 27% week-over-week to $1.35032 trillion. This heightened activity points to significant turnover and opportunistic dip-buying during the volatile decline.
The market structure exhibited a "flight to quality" characteristic during the turmoil:
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| Asset Class | Volume Change (WoW) | Market Cap Change (WoW) | Trading Volume Dominance | Interpretation |
| Bitcoin | 0.342 | N/A | 37.7% (Rebounded) | Intense trading below $100k; reinforcing its role as a perceived safe-haven during volatility. |
| Altcoins | 0.229 | -9.50% | N/A | Heavy selling volume accompanying a sharp drop in value, indicating panic liquidation. |
Next Week's Outlook (Nov 10 – Nov 16)
The upcoming week is packed with macroeconomic releases and significant token unlocks.
Key Macro and Regulatory Events
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| Date | Event | Significance |
| Nov 12 | US Treasury Secretary Yellen Speech; US Government Reopens | Crucial for liquidity and TGA fund release. |
| Nov 12 | SEC Final Deadline for Grayscale Spot HBAR ETF Decision | Regulatory ruling impacting market structure. |
| Nov 12 | Circle Financial Earnings Release | Insights into stablecoin and payment sector health. |
| Nov 13 | US October CPI (Potentially Delayed) | The most important data point—will shape Fed policy and rate cut expectations. |
| Nov 13 | SEC Decision on Franklin Spot Ethereum ETF Staking Feature | Influences the potential yield and attractiveness of future Spot ETH ETFs. |
| Nov 14 | US October Producer Price Index (PPI) Release | Gauge of upstream inflationary pressure. |
Token Unlock Calendar (Potential Selling Pressure)
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| Date | Token | Circulating Supply Unlocked | Estimated Value (USD) | Notes |
| Nov 10 | LINEA | 16.44% | $34.4 Million | A large percentage unlock; monitor for potential selling pressure. |
| Nov 11 | APT | 0.49% | $33.4 Million | Small percentage; limited market impact expected. |
| Nov 15 | STRK | 5.34% | $17.7 Million | |
| Nov 15 | WCT | 65.21% | $15.0 Million | Extremely high unlock percentage; high volatility risk for WCT holders. |
| Nov 15 | SEI | 1.11% | $9.6 Million |
