Ⅰ. Macro Economy and Policy Focus Review
The macro-economic calendar was dense this week, centering on Federal Reserve decisions, US government personnel changes, and Sino-US trade relations.
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| Macro Event Focus | Key Content Summary | Market Interpretation |
| Fed Policy Shift (10.29) | Announced an interest rate cut of 25 basis points (bp) and confirmed the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) in December. | Market expectation of improved liquidity, but Powell subsequently stated the December rate cut was "far from" certain, cooling dovish anticipation. |
| Fed Chair Nomination (10.27-30) | The final five candidates for the Fed Chair were announced; Trump intends to nominate the successor by the end of the year. Treasury Secretary Bessant suggested the nominee might be determined before Christmas. | Policy uncertainty remains, with the market continuously watching the new Chair's monetary policy stance. |
| Sino-US Leaders Meeting (10.30) | Consensus reached to extend the trade truce period. | Helps alleviate global trade tensions and creates a relatively stable macro environment for risk assets. |
| ECB Decision (10.30) | The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, maintaining the deposit rate at 2%. | Shows a divergence from the Fed's policy, indicating varied policy paths among major global economies. |
| US Money Supply Hits New High (10.31) | US M2 money supply surged to an all-time high of $22.212 trillion. | A signal of ample liquidity, which is bullish for risk assets in the long term, though the market's short-term focus remains on interest rate policy. |
| OPEC+ Output Decision (11.2) | Agreed to raise daily oil production by 137,000 barrels in December, but will pause output increases in the first quarter of next year. | Maintains cautious management of the crude oil market, supporting price stability. |
Ⅱ. Crypto Market Review: Decoupling, Correction, and Repricing
Source: TradingView
The crypto market exhibited a critical shift this week: complete decoupling from the US stock market, accompanied by heightened fear sentiment.
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| Market Metric | Weekly Performance and Data | Market Interpretation |
| Price Action | Bitcoin (BTC) hit a high near the key resistance of $116,395 before correcting for four consecutive days to $106,314. The weekly loss totaled 3.49%. | The market failed to sustain gains despite macro tailwinds (Fed rate cut), indicating significant internal selling pressure. |
| Market Sentiment/Technical | BTC's daily price briefly broke below all EMA indicators, marking a clear escalation in market fear. | BTC's divergence from the stock market (supported by earnings) suggests fragile crypto sentiment, exacerbated by sustained fear. |
| Volatility | Implied volatility remains significantly higher than pre-October 11th liquidation event levels, though it has started to slowly retreat. | The market has not fully digested the impact of the historical maximum liquidation event and is in a short-term repricing phase, but medium-term volatility is expected to normalize in the coming weeks. |
| Market Structure/Fund Flows | Bitcoin Dominance surpassed 60%, continuing a 50-day consecutive uptrend. Altcoins corrected more severely than BTC. | Indicates a continued contraction in market risk appetite, with capital increasingly concentrated in the mainstream asset (BTC). |
| On-Chain Behavior | Long-Term Holders accelerated distribution, short-term panic selling slowed down, and bottom fishing capital remains cautious. | Market structure is weak, showing large holders are selling into strength, while new buyers (bottom fishing capital) are hesitant. |
Ⅲ. Key Support and Risk Forecast
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Short-Term Support and Resistance:
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If BTC fails to hold the 85% Short-Term Holder Average Cost (around $109,400), the market may enter a consolidation or ranging phase.
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A break below the 75% Short-Term Holder Average Cost (around $98,700) could trigger a deeper correction.
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Immediate Risks: The lack of clear direction in the macro environment, the ongoing US government shutdown, and uncertainty surrounding the Fed Chair nomination.
Ⅳ. Next Week’s Important Events (November 3 – November 9, 2025)
Next week features key data releases and conferences, with the crypto market focusing on Hong Kong FinTech Week and US employment data.
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| Date | Event/Data | Key Points to Watch |
| Nov 3 (Mon) | Hong Kong FinTech Week begins; US 10-month ISM Manufacturing PMI released; KITE Airdrop claim opens. | Focus on new regulatory developments for virtual assets in Hong Kong; PMI data indicates the health of the US economy. |
| Nov 4 (Tue) | Canada may announce new stablecoin regulations in Federal Budget; 2027 FOMC Voter, SF Fed President Daly speaks; US releases September JOLTS Job Openings. | Monitor stablecoin regulation progress; JOLTS data provides clues on labor market tightness. |
| Nov 5 (Wed) | US releases ADP Employment Report, 10-month ISM Non-Manufacturing Index; Ethena (ENA) unlocks approx. 172M tokens (~$67.1M). | ADP is a leading indicator for Non-Farm Payrolls; watch for potential selling pressure from the large ENA unlock. |
| Nov 6 (Thu) | Bank of England announces latest interest rate decision; US weekly Initial Jobless Claims; Heroes of Mavia (MAVIA) unlocks (~$1.2M). | BOE decision impacts global financial markets; monitor small MAVIA unlock. |
| Nov 7 (Fri) | Multiple FOMC Voters speak (NY Fed President Williams, Philly Fed President Paulsen); US 10-month Non-Farm Payrolls may be postponed due to government shutdown. | Speeches from Fed officials will shape expectations for the future interest rate path. |
| Nov 8 (Sat) | SEC deadline extension for Nasdaq's filing of the Grayscale Polkadot Trust (DOT) listing application. | Focus on the SEC's stance toward new crypto trust products. |
