Cryptocurrency Market Weekly Report (November 11 - November 18, 2025)

Spotlight: Market Experiences Historic Sell-off, BTC Wipes Out Annual Gains, Fear Index Hits Three-Year Low

I. Macro and Market Sentiment Analysis: Risk Aversion and High-Beta Characteristics

1. Macro Correlation Hits New Highs: High-Risk Asset Status Reinforced

• Correlation Spike: Bitcoin's correlation with Nasdaq Futures (30-day correlation recovered to 0.53) and the Russell 2000 Index (correlation surged to 0.95) reached new all-time highs.
• Signal Interpretation: The 0.95 correlation is particularly concerning, indicating that in a context of tightening macro liquidity, the market views Bitcoin as a Small-Cap and High-Beta asset. Such assets are often the first to be sold by institutions when risk appetite is cautious. The failure of the US government shutdown resolution to improve risk sentiment, coupled with uncertainty over the Fed's rate cut path, collectively pressured the market.

1. Sentiment: Historical Levels of Capitulation

• Extreme Fear: The market Fear Index hitting a three-year low reflects a severe collapse of investor confidence.
• Short-Term Holder (STH) Capitulation: When BTC dropped below $95k, the STH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio fell to 0.0009, meaning over 99.9% of realized value came from selling at a loss. The intensity of this capitulation has surpassed the three previous major shakeouts of this cycle, ranking among the top five historical capitulation moments.
• The Positive Side: The concentrated burst of short-term panic selling suggests that passive selling pressure may be rapidly nearing exhaustion, creating the necessary conditions for subsequent market stabilization.

II. On-Chain Structure Analysis: Token Reconfiguration and Pressure Shift

1. Token Structure Shows a Vacuum Zone

• Panic Selling: As the price breached $100k for the second time, tokens previously distributed uniformly in the $100k–$112k range saw panic selling.
• Vacuum Zone Formed: Tokens in the $70k–$93k range were sold off en masse during the recent correction, creating a token vacuum zone. This indicates that profit-taking in this range is largely complete, and selling pressure from cost tokens below has significantly diminished.
• Pressure Shift: The market's main pressure has now entirely shifted to loss-making tokens held by over-the-head supply (investors who bought at higher prices). The subsequent price action will depend heavily on the pace of passive selling release from these short-term holders.

1. Market Weakness Indicator: Breach of STH Cost Basis Range

• Key Metric: The price has fallen below the 75% range of the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis.
• Historical Comparison: Only three similar instances have occurred in the past seven years, two of which led to a sustained downward trend lasting over half a year. This shows that market confidence and liquidity are under sustained pressure, and the current phase of weakness is evident.

III. Capital Flow Analysis: Complete Contraction of Buying Power

1. Sustained ETF Capital Outflow

• Continuous Outflow: Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $1.11 billion this week, marking the third consecutive week of capital exit.
• Magnitude: The cumulative net outflow over the last four weeks has reached a staggering $3.6 billion.
• Signal Interpretation: The negative shift in ETF buying reflects increasing caution among institutions regarding crypto risk assets. This continuous contraction of risk appetite further highlights the tightening overall liquidity environment in the financial market.

1. Public Company Buying Interest Recedes Sharply

• Buying Power Shrinkage: Public companies' buying power has markedly shrunk over the last five weeks, recording only $320 million in net inflows in November so far, a significant drop from $5.57 billion in July.
• First Net Outflow: This week even saw the first net outflow, as the US-listed treasury company Sequans confirmed the sale of 970 BTC to reduce debt.
• Growing Concern: While Sequans' sale is unlikely to be replicated wholesale by other treasury-holding companies, the noticeable contraction in purchasing intent by public companies, coupled with several Data Asset Treasury (DAT) companies seeing their market capitalization fall below the net value of their crypto holdings ($mNAV < 1$), sends a strong signal of caution and receding confidence to the market.

IV. Key Events and Outlook for the Week Ahead

1. Short-Term Outlook and Technical Resistance

• Short-Term Pressure: The market is in a clear bearish phase. The short-term passive selling pressure may be nearing its end, but a bullish reversal has not yet been confirmed.
• Crucial Resistance: $99.5k USD is the critical short-term resistance level. The market must stabilize and hold above this price point to avoid a prolonged bear market and show signs of stabilization.

1. Crypto Calendar Key Events (November 19 - November 21)

1. Token Unlock Reminders

• ZRO: Unlock on November 20, accounting for 7.29% of the circulating supply, valued at approximately $38.3 million. Caution advised regarding potential selling pressure.
• APE: Unlock occurred on November 17, accounting for 1.66% of the circulating supply, valued at approximately $5.5 million.
• ZK/KAITO: Smaller unlocks are also scheduled for November 17/20; monitor short-term liquidity for related ecosystem tokens.