Summary: Fear Subsided, Whale Chips Restructured, Short-Term Focus on the $112K "Iron Wall" Resistance
The crypto market recently experienced sharp volatility, primarily due to macro shocks from the US government shutdown and liquidity tightening, causing Bitcoin (BTC) to briefly dip below $100,000 last week. Although BTC still recorded a cumulative weekly loss of 5.26%, market sentiment is entering a recovery phase as the shutdown is expected to end.
On-chain data indicates a significant restructuring of the chip distribution following the correction. Over 600,000 BTC are concentrated around the $112,000 level, forming a strong, near-term selling pressure zone that will be difficult to breach. In the short term (the next one to two weeks), BTC is expected to consolidate and undergo chip exchange within the $100,000 to $112,000 range. The medium-to-long-term trend remains highly dependent on the amount of liquidity released from the Treasury General Account (TGA).
Bitcoin Chip Restructuring: Short-Term Holder Costs Tested, $112K Becomes the Bull/Bear Dividing Line
While the market's movement this past week was heavily driven by sentiment, the on-chain structure reveals that the volatility facilitated an efficient chip exchange process.
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Key Support Confirmed: Short-Term Holders Did Not Capitulate
Bitcoin's price touched a low of $98,900 but successfully held the Short-Term Holder (STH) Average Cost (around $98,700). This indicates two things:
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No Large-Scale Panic Selling: Most investors who bought recently are holding firm, preventing a deeper cascade of selling.
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$98.7K is a Strong Psychological Support: This cost basis holds critical support significance in the near term.
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Core Resistance Analysis: Selling Pressure Concentrates at $112K
Following the correction, the chip distribution in the $100K–$112K range has become relatively balanced, indicating sufficient contention between buyers and sellers. However, the largest hurdle lies at $112,000:
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Massive Chip Aggregation: Over 600,000 BTC have accumulated near this price point, forming a substantial short-term supply zone. When the price approaches $112K, these chips will exert immense selling pressure.
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Short-Term Forecast: Based on historical patterns (where the price tends to enter consolidation when it is between 75%–85% of the STH cost), BTC is expected to be confined to an oscillating pattern between $100K and $112K.
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Key Resistance Levels: Pay attention to the 85% STH cost level (approx. $108.5K) and the peak chip aggregation at ($112K).
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Short-Term Support Levels: The $100K psychological round number and the STH Average Cost ($98.7K).
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Macro Variables and Trading Strategy: Focus on Liquidity and Rate Cut Expectations
While the short-term trend is primarily dictated by on-chain structure, shifts in macro factors will determine the market's ability to break through the $112K resistance.
Macro Variable Drivers
The end of the US government shutdown is the biggest liquidity tailwind for the market:
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TGA Liquidity: An expected release of over $140 billion in market liquidity from the TGA account. Whether these incremental funds flow into risk assets will be the critical macro driver for a breakthrough above $112K.
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Increased Rate Cut Expectations: The resumption of economic data reports will allow the Federal Reserve to discuss rate cuts more effectively at the December FOMC meeting. Rising rate cut expectations will continue to benefit risk assets.
Short-Term Trading Strategy Suggestions
For the $100K–$112K oscillation range, crypto traders should consider the following strategies:
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| Market Scenario | Strategy Recommendation | Key Focus |
| Price Nears $100K | Accumulate/Buy the Dip: Look for buying opportunities between $98.7K (STH Cost) and $100K. | Check if volume is decreasing at support to confirm a bottom. |
| Price Nears $112K | De-risk/Take Profit: Conduct partial profit-taking or reduce exposure in the $108.5K to $112K range. | Monitor selling volume and short power during the exit. |
| Breakout Above $112K | Go Long: Consider initiating long positions upon a confirmed, sustained break above $112K. | Must be accompanied by clear macro liquidity support (e.g., TGA fund release). |
| Breakdown Below $98.7K | Stop Loss/Hedge: A break below the STH cost line could trigger a new wave of panic selling. | Observe if market sentiment shifts to extreme fear. |
Altcoin Risk Appetite Undiffused: Volatile Downswing Triggers Flight-to-Safety
The market turbulence this week triggered a clear flight-to-safety characteristic. Total trading volume increased by 27%, indicating active hand-changing, but the fund flow shows a sharp contrast:
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BTC's Safe-Haven Role Strengthened: Bitcoin's trading volume increased by 34.2% week-over-week, and its trading volume ratio rebounded to 37.7%. BTC's status as "digital gold" is consolidated during crises.
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Altcoin High Risk: Altcoin market cap dropped by 9.5%, while their trading volume surged by 22.9%, which is a typical sign of a high-volume sell-off.
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Conclusion: Although the altcoin market cap ratio slightly recovered, structurally, this is merely a technical rebound, not a sign of a broad diffusion of risk appetite. Investor willingness to chase high-risk assets (Altcoins) remains neutral.
Upcoming Key Events: Crypto Calendar (Nov 10 - Nov 15)
Investors should closely monitor the following events, as they may act as catalysts for a breakout or breakdown of the short-term consolidation range:
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| Date | Event Details | Potential Impact |
| Nov 12 | US government expected to formally restart; SEC final deadline for Grayscale spot HBAR ETF decision. | Key driver for macro sentiment repair; HBAR ETF decision may affect overall crypto ETF expectations. |
| Nov 13 | US SEC decision on Franklin spot Ethereum ETF adding staking feature. | Affects the competitive landscape of Ethereum spot ETFs. |
| Nov 14 | US release of October Producer Price Index (PPI). | Crucial inflation data, potentially influencing Fed's monetary policy outlook. |
| Unlock Events | Nov 10 LINEA (16.44%), 11th APT, 15th STRK, WCT, SEI unlocks. | Large unlocks can bring short-term supply and selling pressure, particularly for lower-liquidity assets. |
